CEL has had a good year, outperforming nearly every altcoin. Since the start of the year, CEL has increased in value by more than 400%, while CEL is currently up over 2400% since its ATHs in November 2019 as shown below.
Will this outstanding performance continue? Or will CEL come crashing down like many altcoins have done in September?
CEL BTC correlation
Since mid-June, CEL has been seeing a high correlation with BTC. As shown below, we can see that from the eight moves BTC has made since mid – June, CEL has followed six of them (6/8).
With the percentage gains of BTC shown against CEL, we can see that CEL has certainly made strong strides recently. Since the start of September CEL, has really taken off, increasing by over 100% from $0.34 towards $0.74 USD.
These substantial gains are presented below, showing that CEL has increased 106% over the course of 14 days.
During this period many other cryptocurrencies have performed very poorly, especially DeFi coins such as CRV (Curve DAO), BAL (Balancer) and LEND (Aave).
CRV/USD Heavy losses for the popular DeFi coin
CEL/USD extraordinary gains from CEL
Recent trend line
When looking at the current formations for CEL we can see that there is currently a bullish ascending support line. This support line has numerous points of validation and has been strictly obeyed by CEL.
This upwards support line began on the 8th of September and is still being obeyed 16 days later. The upwards support line occurred after a prolonged period of sideways trading. Between 28/06/20 – 08/09/20 CEL only saw sideways movement.
During this same period many altcoins saw substantial gains.
The recent gains by CEL could be investors moving from other altcoins. This can be demonstrated in the current rejection of the overall alt coin trend. Below we can see the trends of COMP/USD, BAL/USD, IOTA/USD, LEND/USD and then CEL/USD since the 8th of September.
From the 8th up until the 12th of September, CEL was following the other altcoins. On the 12th, CEL completely detached itself from altcoins and the general movements of the cryptocurrency market.
CEL/USD altcoin comparisons
If CEL is currently indeed uncorrelated or at least less correlated with BTC, what is the TA saying? Are there any bullish or bearish formations? What are the indicators saying?
CEL is currently within an upwards broadening formation, right in the middle of this formation. When we look at the Elliot Waves within this formation we can see, as demonstrated below, that we are currently moving within the 5th wave.
If CEL moves below $0.63 USD then the suggestion of a 5th Elliot Wave would be false, this is the invalidation line.
SAR – The SAR is currently bearish. But it is a lagging indicator and due to the recent bounce off the support line the SAR will likely turn bullish very soon.
MACD – The MACD is a similar story to the SAR. It is currently bearish, although it looks set to flip very soon. This can be demonstrated with the MACD histogram being nearly neutral.
QQE MT4 – The QQE MT4 is currently neutral. There is no real crossover and shows no bias towards one particular direction.
PPs – PPs are currently bullish. This is due to the candles being above the central PP. CEL also found support at the central PP increasing the bullish sentiment given by this indicator.
BBs – Currently bullish. The price has found support at the 20 day SMA recently (BBs centre line). This is bullish.
MA ADX – The MA ADX is currently green. This is a new indicator which we have been using recently, it is very simple. The indicator is currently green, and therefore bullish.
GANN HL – This indicator has recently seen a bullish flip. The Gann HL has gone from being above the price candle to below it, flipping from burgundy to blue.
PnF – the PnF is currently bearish. This can be seen by the recent flip from red to green. However, during the start of the current formation a similar scenario occurred, it is possible that the same thing could happen again.
CEL price targets
Due to the overall bullish feel around CEL, the two price targets are both above the current price.
The first price target is $0.95 USD. Reaching this target would see CEL increase 25%. This price is very much possible. With the flip of indicators such as the Gann HL and the MACD flip looking imminent, these indicators should carry CEL towards this price.
The second price target is $1.13 USD. To reach this, CEL would need to break through the R1 resistance level which could be tricky. It would also require CEL to initiate a substantial run. If this level is reached it would see CEL increase by 51%.
It seems very likely that CEL will continue its recent run. But due to this being the 5th wave, caution should be taken as what will come next is an Elliot correction wave.
Recently, Uniswap announced that they would be issuing their UNI token. Below we can see that chart for UNI. At first, the cryptocurrency saw an incredible surge towards $8 USD. However since then UNI has broken its upwards trend line, seeing the cryptocurrency fall 37% down to $4.1 USD as can be seen below.
During this time something spectacular happened: Users saw that UNI had been listed and wanted to get in on the action. This saw users purchasing large amounts of UNI, except they were purchasing the wrong UNI. Users had been purchasing Unicorn. This saw the cryptocurrency surge 500,000% before swiftly crashing 99.99%. The chart for UNI is shown below. The cryptocurrency world never fails to impress.
Due to the cryptocurrency being very young there is very little data for us to work with on the daily and hourly charts. This means that once this report is released, the potential scenarios may have already occurred.
UNI/USD daily chart
UNI/USD 30 mins chart
When looking at the 30 mins chart we can see that there is already a formation occurring for UNI. There is a descending wedge formation, a very bullish one. The descending formation has an ascending pre-trend, while a positive breakout has occurred. This saw UNI find support at the previous descending resistance for the descending wedge.
UNI/USD descending wedge
If we then look at the Fibonacci resistance levels, we can then set price targets to potentially take profit from, if a long position is chosen.
If a long position was initiated due to the bullish breakout, a stop loss would be set at $3.5 USD. From here the price targets and profit taking levels would then be at the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci resistance levels.
MA ADX – The ADX is very bullish. It has seen a bullish switch with the ADX turning from red to green, correlating with the positive breakout.
SAR – The SAR is currently underneath the price candle: This is bullish.
PPs – N/A – due to the big price swings and lack of data, the PPs are not very useful at this point.
UNI is currently looking very bullish on the 30 mins chart and is showing a high possibility of the $5.5 USD level being hit. However, currently there is no ability to predict the long term bullish / bearish possibilities.
BTC has had a very poor week. After testing and failing to break through the $11000 USD level, BTC has sunk down towards $10300 USD. The recent price action is shown below.
BTC/USD price action
This major drop off occurred after the recent support line was broken. The support trend line had numerous points of validation. Once this was broken, BTC then saw the previous support line act as resistance, confirming that the trend line had been broken.
BTC/USD broken trend line
Elliot Waves BTC
When looking at the recent trend, we can see that it was an Elliot correction wave. This is very well highlighted through the use of the Gann HL, alongside the waves.
BTC/USD Elliot waves
These Elliot waves then coincide with the long term BTC Elliot waves. As shown below, the recent Elliot correction wave formed the (A) to (B) of the recent movement. This means that we are now within the (B) to (C) wave. Therefore a move below $10000 USD seems imminent, alongside this with the whole cryptocurrency market very attached to BTC recently, if this occurs we will likely see many coins bleed, losing significant value in the coming days.
BTC/USD Elliot Waves current outlook
BTC Long term Elliot Waves
In the long term things are looking much more positive. A touchdown towards $9000 USD is looking very likely now. From here, if this can be used as support and BTC does not see a dramatic drop off, it is expected that the wave after will be impulsive, with the BTC corrective wave ending at $9000 USD.
This ending of the corrective wave is then supported by the 200 day SMA, which could see BTC potentially bounce off the 200 day SMA, maintaining the bullish outlook.
BTC 200 day SMA
In the long term the price target by 2021 is $17000 USD. However this depends on a range of factors, most notably the performance of the traditional markets.
BTC/USD long term view
BTC LT EW conclusion
There is uncertainty. The bullish sentiment surrounding BTC and crypto as a whole is somewhat vanishing. This we believe may be down to the potential of a second lockdown and a second COVID19 wave. If this occurs, then the fallout seen in March within the cryptocurrency market may happen again – and potentially even worse.
If the traditional markets find support, crypto will be indirectly held together. With the US election coming up it seems that it would be unlikely that president Trump will not support the markets.
If the potential fallout does occur, BTC could see a head and shoulders formation. Another factor which should also be mentioned is the stock flow chart, which would render the possibility of BTC hitting March lows again extremely unlikely.
BTC/USD potential head and shoulders